Comparison of Response policy to COVID-19
Comparison of Response policy to COVID-19: focus on prediction model
Objective: This study aims to analyze and compare the effectiveness of COVID-19 response policies across different countries, focusing on the prediction of effective response measures. Specifically, it examines the role of containment, economic, and health system policies implemented in China, the United States, and Korea, and assesses how these responses impacted the trend of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The research seeks to determine which policies most effectively controlled the pandemic and how China’s response differed from other nations.
Method and Data: The study uses data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) covering 831 days from January 2020 to March 2022. Sixteen different response policies are included as independent variables, while the degree of change in confirmed cases is the dependent variable. The research employs predictive models such as Regression Decision Trees, Random Forests, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Granger causality tests to identify the causal relationships between response policies and confirmed cases.
Results: The findings indicate that China’s containment policy was the most stringent and effective compared to other countries, particularly in preventing the spread of COVID-19. In contrast, the U.S. adopted a mixed policy approach, focusing on mask mandates and vaccinations. Korea’s response emphasized school closures and contact tracing. Predictive models show that China’s response policies had a significant Granger causal effect on reducing confirmed cases, particularly through stay-home and testing policies. However, limitations in time-series reflection were identified, suggesting the need for Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for future research.